Science
Why does more information make us worse at predicting?
Give people more information about a situation, and their confidence in their prediction goes up. But their actual accuracy? It barely moves. Sometimes it gets worse. Kahneman found this pattern everywhere: in doctors, investors, hiring managers, and military assessors.
Confidence is a feeling, which reflects the coherence of the information and the cognitive ease of processing it.— Daniel Kahneman
The full breakdown — the context, the shift, and a question to sit with — opens in the Insights app.
The thinker
Nobel Laureate in Behavioral Economics
Daniel Kahneman (1934–2024) was an Israeli-American psychologist who won the Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on judgment and decision-making under uncertainty.
Based on Daniel Kahneman: Thinking, Fast and Slow — Talks at Google, summarised and reframed by Insights.
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