Physical
Why We Consistently Misjudge Technological Change
When smartphones first emerged, we thought they'd immediately revolutionize everything. When they didn't transform society overnight, many dismissed them as overhyped gadgets. Yet today, they've fundamentally rewired human behavior in ways we never anticipated - from how we navigate cities to how we form relationships.
We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.— Roy Amara
The full breakdown — the context, the shift, and a question to sit with — opens in the Insights app.
The thinker
Technology Forecasting Pioneer
Roy Amara was a researcher, scientist, and past president of the Institute for the Future, best known for his insights on technological forecasting and societal change.
Based on Amara's Law and Its Place in the Future of Tech, summarised and reframed by Insights.
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